Monday, April 28, 2003
...Cervezas Dominating Early
Driving down to the draft with Chris, the discussion about the Cervezas centered on rebuilding. Sure he might have an outstanding draft and be able to compete with keeper-heavy teams like the HoDogs, Elephants, Varks, and Ache Men. But realistically, Chris was planning on keeping Mark Prior as an NC all year and winning it all in 2004.
One month into the season, the Cervezas sit atop the DCBA standings and their 76 points leaves the second place HoDogs and Elephants 14 points behind. What happened?
Well, first and foremost, the Cervezas had an excellent auction. Luis Gonzalez at $33 while similar sluggers were going for $40+. Rafael Furcal at $20, Moises Alou at $22, Jose Vidro at $27, and Rondell White at $15 were all bargains. Edgardo Alfonzo at $24 will likely end up being a good buy as well. The Cervezas did not do as well on the pitching side, wasting $16 on Brandon Villafuerte, but their $20 Al Leiter has been solid, and with Padilla and Gagne already kept and Prior & Zambrano available off the NC list, this staff looks solid.
Next, the Cervezas have gotten incredible starts from some players. $7 JT Snow has more RBI in April (21) then may have been expected from him all year. Rafael Furcal is batting .320 and has 5 SBs as the Cervezas primary speed source. Gonzalez and White both have 7 HRs in April. Mike Matheny, of all people, is batting .312! Steve Kline has picked up 3 saves with Izzy on the DL. And Shawn Chacon has 4 wins (though has been on the bench for 3) and a sub-2.00 ERA! The only bad starts for the Cervezas has been the pitching of Ryan Jensen, Jason Simontacchi, and Villafuerte, and the early slump of Edgardo Alfonzo.
The hot start led to the Cervezas decision to activate Prior & Zambrano, and they have been lights out so far this year. And then the blockbuster sending first round reserve pick Jesse Foppert and 14B Marcus Giles to the Woodies as the centerpiece of a deal that not only landed the Cervezas Jeff Kent, but also added Jon Vanderwal, who is a very solid OF who will get a lot of a playing time in a Brewers outfield with Jeffrey Hammonds as a starter.
So can the Cervezas hold on all year? Maybe. They are bringing up Shawn Chacon this week in an attempt to ride the hot hand, and Chacon may be the key to their season. If he does not ever realize he is pitching in Coors, the Cervezas pitching staff is awesome. If Chacon reverts to Mike Hampton form in Colorado, then the Cervezas lack of depth may be exposed as they hope for decent numbers from two of Jensen, Simontacchi, Lloyd, TJones, Stephenson or Villafuerte. The batting average and power numbers should return to earth a little bit, as Matheny and Snow cool down. And they are in trouble if injuries strike oft-injured players like Alou and White. They have one great trading chip left in Eric Gagne, and then they have to do some selling around NCs like Jerome Williams or Angel Guzman, or parlay Snows hot start, or take the dive and trade Prior. It will be interesting to see what the Cervezas deal as the race tightens up in May and June.
Each year the Cervezas arrive at the auction, buy a pitcher, and most of the discussion about Chris' draft centers around beer drinking and the acquisition of Hispanic surnames. But each year, Chris finds himself solidly in the money, and contending for the title. And 2003 may finally be the year he breaks through!
posted by Mariner Optimist 10:23 AM
Saturday, April 19, 2003
...Robb Nen shoulder surgery "successful"
Nen's surgery was "almost identical" to the one he underwent in November. He is out indefinitely. Nen should resume throwing in early May, but he figures to miss at least two months. Tim Worrell will remain San Francisco's closer.
This time, the medical staff won't pick a target date for Nen's return after admitting he rushed his comeback from the first operation in a bid to be ready by Opening Day. "There is no timetable," Conte said. "We don't want to get Robb hung up on making or not making it back at a certain time. There was obviously some stuff we did during that (rehabilitation) process that inflamed the shoulder. We are not going to keep pushing him. "He tried to make Opening Day. That was an obvious mistake in the rehab process. We're not going to make it again."
posted by Mariner Optimist 11:32 PM
Elephants deal Reyes, Choi to Woodies for Renteria, Kendall, Vazquez
After much deep thought, the Elephants today accepted an offer from the Woodies an dealt uber-prospect Jose Reyes, fast starting Hee Seop Choi (10A) and Expos catcher Brian Schneider (1B) to the Woodies for a trifecta of talent and Elephant faves Edgar Renteria, Javier Vazquez, and Jason Kendall. This completes a cycle for the Elephants, where they should've kept Vazquez and Renteria going into the auction, and not had the money to spend on Robb Nen, who is now out indefinitely, and is easily the bust of the auction to date.
Reyes & Schneider came to the Elephants in the Wagner/Patterson to Benedicts deal, and Choi was part of the package from the Rynos for Vlad Guerrero. The deal obviously helps both teams, as the Elephants struggle to get back to the top of the league, and are hurting most in starting pitching, speed, and batting average. Choi's power will be missed, and Reyes could've provided that speed, but the Elephants decided not to pin their 4-peat hopes entirely on rookies, and dealt them early.
To balance deal, the Elephants will send down pitcher Jeriome Robertson, and move the slumping Aaron Boone from 2B over to 3B, moving Robby Alomar from MI to 2B.
posted by Mariner Optimist 11:25 PM
Wednesday, April 16, 2003
...Reyes off to a FAST start
Elephants and Mets uber-prospect SS Jose Reyes has been lighting up the basepaths for AAA Norfolk. Through eleven games, Reyes has a .289 batting average from nine singles, two doubles, two triples, and added two walks. And oh yeah, he is 11 for 11 in stolen base attempts. Rumors that Elephant management has been telling White House officials that Rey Sanchez is Sadaam Hussein's brother-in-law appear unfounded.
This speed could be much-needed as the Elephants only have six stolen bases this year, matching the output of last year's speed demon Juan Pierre.
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:42 PM
...Poor Decisions by Elephant Management
Fearing his Sunday start in Coors, Jake Peavy was sent down for this week, so the Elephants missed out on his 6-inning, 5-hit, 1-ER win over Arizona on Tuesday. He and the injured Pedro Astacio were replaced in the rotation by Astro Jeriome Robertson and Brewer Todd Ritchie. Bad idea. These two combined for 8.7 innings of 16-hit, 7-walk, 8-ER. And they pitch again before the Elephants will have a chance to demote them. Yikes.
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:35 PM
...Giles down for 2-4 weeks!
The cornerstone of the Elephants offense, Brian Giles strained the MCL in his right knee. He will not need surgery, but should miss anywhere from two to four weeks. He has declined the option to seek a second opinion on his leg. Giles has gotten off to a slow start in 2003 with no home runs and 4 RBIs to go with a .223 average before going on the DL on 4/12. Not a good start for the Elephants.
Giles will be replaced by Craig Wilson in the Elephants lineup for this week. Wilson is off to a perfect 0-11 start to his 2003.
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:27 PM
...Cervezas wheelin' and dealin'
Well, the Cervezas have announced their presence in the 2003 race with authority. A day after activating Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano, the Cervezas decided to take a different path with their first round reserve pick, Jesse Foppert. Foppert was the key player in a deal with the dumping Woodies for big bat Jeff Kent. The deal involved six other players, but the only other notable player is that the Cervezas give up Marcus Giles. So essentially, Jesse Foppert buys the Cervezas a major bat upgrade from Marcus Giles to Jeff Kent. A reasonable trade for both teams.
For the Woodies, this deal confirms their intent to be a team that dumps early and often. With the Keteers already out of tradeable players, and no other definite dumpers on the horizon, the Woodies should be hearing from many teams in the near future. The Elephants have had some discussion with the Woodies, but have mainly been rebuffed by the Woodies, who do not seem to desire any of the Elephants.
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:24 PM
Monday, April 14, 2003
DCBA Two Weeks In
Two weeks in, and here's what have we learned...
First, and most obviously, the Keteers are playing for 2004. If that was not obvious by their $21 Trevor Hoffman, then it was confirmed when by the end of week two they had traded everyone except Hoffman who had a salary greater than $13. First the warmup act of sending Wiki Gonzalez to the Payolahs for $1 high-potential catcher Ramon Castro. Then, the first blockbuster - they get a $10 Adam Dunn, $1 Matt Clement, $4 gimpy Russ Branyan, and top NC stud Wilson Betemit from the Ache Men for the pricetag of Barry Bonds, Matt Morris & David Bell. Next they move Ryan Klesko to the Payolahs for a $10 Scott Williamson. And now they add a $10 Albert Pujols and the potential of Juan Cruz from the Benedicts for Jim Thome & Kerry Wood. So, before tax day, the Keteers are almost done trading for 2003 (still some big Free Agent Bids to be made, I'm sure), but are the sure favorites for 2004. Well played Mark.
Meanwhile, the Cervezas are playing for 2003. Seeing themselves near the top of the leader board for two weeks, and suddenly, the Cervezas have abandoned their rebuilding plan, and activated Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano, changing their 2004 status from free NCs to $10 players, a move that could significantly hamper the Cervezas in 2004. We'll see if they activate Jesse Foppert in the next week's trannies. What prompted this decision? A solid draft combined with hot starts by Moises Alou, Luis Gonzalez, Jose Vidro, and even JT Snow have the Cervezas in fourth, and the only thing keeping them down is their flammable pitching staff. So here comes Prior & Zambrano to the rescue.
This leaves the Woodies as the big target for traders in the coming weeks. With trade bait of Jeff Kent $41, Sammy Sosa $44, Edgar Renteria $28, Greg Maddux $28, Adrian Beltre $24, Javier Vazquez $20, and Jason Kendall $19, the Woodies will surely pick up some nice trinkets to go with their foundation of $12 Phil Nevin, and NCs Sean Burroughs and Brett Myers as they seek to contend with the Keteers in 2004.
The Ache Men went into the offseason as a favorite, screwed up by freezing Duckworth, Neagle, Reitsma, compounded error with bids of $29 on Ken Griffey and $25 on Roger Cedeno, but may have fixed things by pulling off deal with the Keteers to land Bonds and Morris, arguably the best hitter and best pitcher that will be available by trade this year. Their hopes still hinge way too much on Mike Hampton. Chances are 50-50 that Ache Men could be dealing Bonds and Morris again this year, if they can't deal Hampton for better pitching after a hot start.
The Benedicts complained about not getting any early trade action. They then move the big Pujols to get Jim Thome and Kerry Wood. Thome/Pujols is a wash, except that Thome has no positional flexibility, so the key is Kerry Wood. Early indicators look like Wood will either have a big year, or have arm surgery from the abuse that Dusty Baker lays on him. 122 pitches in his second start! Scary. Assuming Wood stays healthy, he gives the Benedicts a much-needed boost to a VERY young pitching staff that boasts Villareal, Eaton, and Oliver Perez to go with "veterans" Wood, Schmidt, and Carl Pavano. But those bats sure look nice with the Jones boys, Thome and Helton. Those young pitchers might fetch something in trade, but otherwise, no clear trade bait available for the Benedicts, so their trading tdays may be over for awhile.
The Payolahs still have closers aplenty even after dealing Williamson, and look strong in all the pitching categories. Adding Klesko was a must as Klesko is now his best hitter, but this offense relies on a lot of injury-prone (or currently hurting) players including Klesko, Cliff Floyd, Fred McGriff, and Luis Castillo. Still a few tradeable assets like Randy Wolf around so the Payolahs probably have another deal or two in them.
The only non-Keteer trade involved the HoDogs and the Heads with the Heads getting Kurt Ainsworth and a reasonable catcher in Gary Bennett for the now-controversial Paul Loduca and a NC pitcher in Luke Hudson who won't be pitching again til 2005. This deal obviously hinges on Ainsworth, who was immediately activated after the trade, and has looked fantastic in the early going. The Heads lost Paul Byrd for at least half the season, but now have Ainsworth to go with Oswalt and Sheets, and must hope for better results from Damian Moss and Danny Graves as their pitching is not deep. They shrewdly picked up Joe Borowski to back up Dave Veres who is backing up Antonio Alfonseca to get Cubs saves, but aside from that there are few saves options out there. The Heads offense rocketed out to a strong start on the back of Alex Gonzalez unexpected power show and hot starts from Brian Jordan and Reggie Sanders. As these three come back to earth, the slack will need to be picked up by Pudge and Ramirez, which may very well happen. Oswalt looms as the big trade target here, but it would likely take Schilling or Big Unit + a stud to pry him away. Meanwhile, the HoDogs find themselves in first place by combining Florida speed and great starts from Jeff Suppan, Hideo Nomo and Kris Benson . Tons of tradebait with $3 Benson, $3 Mantei, $1 Suppan, NC Lyle Overbay and $16 J.D. Drew may provide hitting depth or dealing bait for the HoDogs who look like they'll be in the money at the end, and are my current favorites to take home the title.
Juan Pierre looks like a great acquisition for the Boards, but man, what happened to the Big Unit. The anchor of a strong staff has an 8.31 ERA after three starts, though Brian Lawrence and A.J. Burnett have been solid and Trey Hodges has already gotten the call in ATL. Xavier Nady looks like another good off-season acquisition for the Boards, who look like they may contend for the title and may likely run away with the Coleman Cup again. They are a little light on tradebait to build from, however, but the Boards always seem to find their way into the money. And the Rynochasers should be right there as Curt Schilling, Armando Benitez and Jim Edmonds join Vlad and Lance on this solid team with lots of NC talent to trade.
Speaking of NC talent to trade, how about those Varks? They've been shut out of the early trading despite keeping Corey Patterson and Marlon Byrd inactive in an attempt to maximize their trade value. Patterson comes active this week, but aside from one big day from Patterson, the big NC pack of Thurston, Hill, Byrd, Patterson and Spivey have been a HUGE bust, with Spivey losing playing time after a 6-38 start and Byrd chiming in at .161 while Hill and Thurston work on their games at AAA. While mired in next to last place, the Varks are still a favorite for the title, with tons of tradebait including the above NCs and Benedicts-nightmare John Patterson returning to the bigs. Slow starts from Odalis Perez and BH Kim have offset Kevin Brown's hot start, and the Varks need Izzy healthy soon. When these guys get untracked, their march up the standings will look like Americans going through Iraq.
And finally, the Elephants had a horrible auction, but its not killing them... yet. Austin Kearns has been stellar in his first week of playing time, and the group of Boone, Cabrera, and Wilson have been solid. Now the Elephants have lost Brian Giles for at least two weeks, and Robb Nen's return is at least that far away, and Scott Stewart's Spring injury has seemingly lost save chances to Rocky Biddle in Montreal. Time will tell if he's lost the closer role entirely, but at least he's looked good in setup roles. The savior of this team so far has been the strong pitching starts of Kirk Rueter and Tomo Okha to go along with Kevin Millwood. And with lots of nice trinkets available to trade for more pitching, the Elephants are certainly going to be heard in their bid for an unprecedented fourth straight DCBA title.
posted by Mariner Optimist 10:54 AM
